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Stocksbridge P. vs Ilkeston Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Stocksbridge P.

PPG 0.89 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ilkeston Town

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.2%0-26.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.4%1-112.4%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-18.3%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.8%3-13.7%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 36.4% 2.75 +3.4%

Draw 26.0% 30.3% 3.30 -14.2%

Away win 36.3% 46.5% 2.15 -22.0%

Over 2.5 49.7% — — —

Over 3.5 27.8% — — —

BTTS 54.1% 59.9% 1.67 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.1%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 9.4%

#3 0–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stocksbridge P.1.3

Ilkeston Town1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKSBRIDGE P. · PPG 0.89

ILKESTON TOWN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.89), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Stocksbridge P. (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +3.4%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.2%

Ilkeston Town (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stocksbridge P. face Ilkeston Town in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stocksbridge P. a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Ilkeston Town 36%, so Stocksbridge P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Stocksbridge P. and 1.3 for Ilkeston Town (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stocksbridge P. are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.00 for Ilkeston Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Stocksbridge P. vs Ilkeston Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

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