Today / Estonia - Meistriliiga / Vaprus vs Levadia

Vaprus vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:00

Vaprus

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Levadia

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-17.5%0-29.9%0-38.7%0-4+10.8%1 1-02.6%1-16.9%1-29.1%1-38.0%1-4+10.0%2 2-01.2%2-13.2%2-24.2%2-33.7%2-4+4.6%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.3%3-31.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 11.1% 9.00 +14.5%

Draw 21.2% 20.0% 5.00 +3.6%

Away win 64.9% 78.1% 1.28 -16.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 47.6% 42.6% 2.35 +11.9%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 65% / xG 0.9-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–3 8.7%

#4 1–3 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaprus0.9

Levadia2.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VAPRUS · PPG 1.40

LEVADIA · PPG 2.60

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Vaprus (H) 13.8%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +14.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.6%

Levadia (A) 64.9%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaprus face Levadia in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaprus a 14% chance, the draw 21% and Levadia 65%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Vaprus and 2.6 for Levadia (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaprus are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.60 for Levadia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 1-6.

Vaprus vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Meistriliiga Predictions