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Rushall vs Morpeth Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Rushall

PPG 1.11 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Morpeth Town

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+22.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.7%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.6%1-110.6%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.7%3-16.1%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% 48.8% 2.05 +22.6%

Draw 22.3% 31.3% 3.20 -28.6%

Away win 17.9% 33.3% 3.00 -46.3%

Over 2.5 52.5% — — —

Over 3.5 30.3% — — —

BTTS 50.5% 61.7% 1.62 -18.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.5%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 11.6%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rushall1.9

Morpeth Town0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RUSHALL · PPG 1.11

MORPETH TOWN · PPG 0.47

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.47)

Win probability 1X2

Rushall (H) 59.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +22.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -28.6%

Morpeth Town (A) 17.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -46.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rushall face Morpeth Town in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rushall a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Morpeth Town 18%, so Rushall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Rushall and 0.9 for Morpeth Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rushall are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.47 for Morpeth Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Rushall vs Morpeth Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

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