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Rushall vs Morpeth Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

England - Non League Premier - Northern logo England flag England - Non League Premier - Northern Regular Season - 41 Dales Lane· Walsall, West Midlands Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00
Rushall logo Rushall PPG 1.11
1-0 HIT MostLikelyScore
Morpeth Town logo Morpeth Town PPG 0.47
Home· +22.6% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Rushall face Morpeth Town in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rushall a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Morpeth Town 18%, so Rushall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Rushall and 0.9 for Morpeth Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rushall are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.47 for Morpeth Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.8%
Odds: 2.05 EV: +22.6%
Draw 22.3%
Odds: 3.20 EV: -28.6%
Away 17.9%
Odds: 3.00 EV: -46.3%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.5% Odds: —
Over 3.5 30.3% Odds: —
BTTS 50.5% Odds: 1.62 -18.2%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 2-0
3rd 1-1
4th 2-1
5th 3-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Rushall
1.86
Morpeth Town
0.91

Model Suggestion

Home +22.6% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

League Track Record

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5/Under 50%
BTTS/No 50%
Score Hit 50%
ROI 0.4%
Bet Hit 50% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.47)

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