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Sunnersta vs Kungsangen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 13:00

Sunnersta

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kungsangen

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a clear edge.

+19.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-12.0%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.2%1-15.5%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.1%2-17.5%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-013.0%3-16.9%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-017.6%4+-19.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.9% 59.5% 1.68 +19.1%

Draw 20.5% 25.6% 3.90 -12.0%

Away win 8.6% 25.0% 4.00 -39.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 67.6% 1.48 -9.1%

Over 3.5 41.9% 45.5% 2.20 -7.8%

BTTS 48.6% 69.0% 1.45 -29.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -22.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.6%

H 71% / xG 2.8-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 3–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 4–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunnersta2.8

Kungsangen0.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNNERSTA · PPG 2.00

KUNGSANGEN · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Sunnersta (H) 70.9%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +19.1%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -12.0%

Kungsangen (A) 8.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -39.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunnersta face Kungsangen in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunnersta a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Kungsangen 9%, so Sunnersta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Sunnersta and 0.5 for Kungsangen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunnersta are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Kungsangen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 4-1.

Sunnersta vs Kungsangen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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