Today / KuPS Ak. vs Rovaniemi

KuPS Ak. vs Rovaniemi Prediction

Sunday, May 24, 2026

KuPS Ak.

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rovaniemi

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.9%0-25.8%0-35.9%0-4+9.2%1 1-01.7%1-15.2%1-27.8%1-37.9%1-4+12.4%2 2-01.2%2-13.5%2-25.3%2-35.3%2-4+8.3%3 3-00.5%3-11.6%3-22.4%3-32.4%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.7%4+-21.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 65.1% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 63.1% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob62.5%

A 65% / xG 1.3-3.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.9%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 1–4 5.9%

#5 0–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS Ak.1.3

Rovaniemi3.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS AK. · PPG 0.75

ROVANIEMI · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

KuPS Ak. (H) 13.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rovaniemi (A) 65.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS Ak. face Rovaniemi on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS Ak. a 14% chance, the draw 21% and Rovaniemi 65%, so Rovaniemi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for KuPS Ak. and 3.0 for Rovaniemi (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS Ak. are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Rovaniemi. This match finished 0-1.

KuPS Ak. vs Rovaniemi Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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