Today / Hibernian W vs Hearts W

Hibernian W vs Hearts W Prediction

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Hibernian W
PPG 2.08 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Hearts W
PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.3%0-24.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.2%1-18.1%1-27.7%1-34.9%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.6%2-27.3%2-34.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.5%3-14.8%3-24.6%3-32.9%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.5%4+-23.3%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 38.6%
Draw 24.4%
Away win 37.0%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 52.5%
BTTS 63.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.0%

A 37% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%
#2 1–2 7.7%
#3 2–1 7.6%
#4 2–2 7.3%
#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hibernian W1.9
Hearts W1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HIBERNIAN W · PPG 2.08

HEARTS W · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.08), Away EXCELLENT (2.38)

Win probability 1X2

Hibernian W (H) 38.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 24.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Hearts W (A) 37.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hibernian W face Hearts W on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hibernian W a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Hearts W 37%, so Hibernian W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hibernian W and 1.9 for Hearts W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hibernian W are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 2.38 for Hearts W. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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