Today / England - Non League Premier - Northern / Leek Town vs Whitby Town

Leek Town vs Whitby Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Leek Town

PPG 1.47 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Whitby Town

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+21.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.1%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.0%1-111.6%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.9%3-15.2%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 45.5% 2.20 +21.2%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -20.1%

Away win 20.4% 37.0% 2.70 -44.9%

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 25.0% — — —

BTTS 47.6% 58.8% 1.70 -19.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.0%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leek Town1.6

Whitby Town0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEEK TOWN · PPG 1.47

WHITBY TOWN · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Leek Town (H) 55.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +21.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -20.1%

Whitby Town (A) 20.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -44.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leek Town face Whitby Town in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leek Town a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Whitby Town 20%, so Leek Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leek Town and 0.9 for Whitby Town (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leek Town are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.21 for Whitby Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Leek Town vs Whitby Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Non League Premier - Northern Predictions