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Leek Town vs Whitby Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

England - Non League Premier - Northern logo England flag England - Non League Premier - Northern Regular Season - 41 F. Ball Community Stadium· Leek, Staffordshire Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00
Leek Town logo Leek Town PPG 1.47
3-2 MISS
Whitby Town logo Whitby Town PPG 1.21
Home· +21.2% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Leek Town face Whitby Town in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leek Town a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Whitby Town 20%, so Leek Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leek Town and 0.9 for Whitby Town (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leek Town are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.21 for Whitby Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 55.1%
Odds: 2.20 EV: +21.2%
Draw 24.6%
Odds: 3.25 EV: -20.1%
Away 20.4%
Odds: 2.70 EV: -44.9%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.5% Odds: —
Over 3.5 25.0% Odds: —
BTTS 47.6% Odds: 1.70 -19.1%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-0
4th 2-1
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Leek Town
1.64
Whitby Town
0.89

Model Suggestion

Home +21.2% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

League Track Record

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5/Under 50%
BTTS/No 50%
Score Hit 50%
ROI 0.4%
Bet Hit 50% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

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