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Kauno Z. B vs Siauliai B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 12:00

Kauno Z. B

PPG 0.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Siauliai B

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-112.9%0-29.4%0-34.5%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.2%2-16.1%2-24.4%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-12.0%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 59.9% 1.67 -31.7%

Draw 27.9% 25.6% 3.90 +5.3%

Away win 44.0% 25.6% 3.90 +71.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 63.7% 1.57 -25.3%

Over 3.5 22.7% 42.6% 2.35 -28.0%

BTTS 51.6% 66.7% 1.50 -22.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.6%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 0–2 9.4%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Z. B1.0

Siauliai B1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO Z. B · PPG 0.00

SIAULIAI B · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Z. B (H) 28.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -31.7%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +5.3%

Siauliai B (A) 44.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +71.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Z. B face Siauliai B in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Z. B a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Siauliai B 44%, so Siauliai B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kauno Z. B and 1.5 for Siauliai B (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Z. B are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Siauliai B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +71.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Kauno Z. B vs Siauliai B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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