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Samtredia vs Telavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 12:00

Samtredia

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Telavi

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 53.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.2%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.7%1-113.1%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.4%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.6%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Draw 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Away win 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -10.9%

Over 2.5 46.7% 45.5% 2.20 +2.7%

Over 3.5 20.3% 26.3% 3.80 -13.7%

BTTS 51.6% 53.8% 1.86 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samtredia1.3

Telavi1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMTREDIA · PPG 1.57

TELAVI · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=45.4%

Win probability 1X2

Samtredia (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -2.4%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Telavi (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samtredia face Telavi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samtredia a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Telavi 26%, so Samtredia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Samtredia and 1.0 for Telavi (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samtredia are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.71 for Telavi. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Samtredia vs Telavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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