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Merani Martvili vs Kolkheti Poti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 12:00

Merani Martvili

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kolkheti Poti

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.1%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-112.2%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.2%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Draw 25.8% 30.3% 3.30 -8.9%

Away win 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -13.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 57.1% 1.75 -16.7%

Over 3.5 22.6% 37.0% 2.70 -23.4%

BTTS 51.6% 62.9% 1.59 -18.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0✓ 13.4%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merani Martvili1.5

Kolkheti Poti0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MERANI MARTVILI · PPG 1.71

KOLKHETI POTI · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=50.4%

Win probability 1X2

Merani Martvili (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +0.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.9%

Kolkheti Poti (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Merani Martvili face Kolkheti Poti in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merani Martvili a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Kolkheti Poti 24%, so Merani Martvili are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Merani Martvili and 0.9 for Kolkheti Poti (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merani Martvili are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.43 for Kolkheti Poti. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Merani Martvili vs Kolkheti Poti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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