Today / S. Shenhua vs Shenzhen

S. Shenhua vs Shenzhen Prediction

Sunday, May 24, 2026

S. Shenhua

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Shenzhen

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.8%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.7%1-17.3%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-17.9%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-19.4%4+-25.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 20.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 49.4% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 59% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.6%

#3 1–1 7.3%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Shenhua2.6

Shenzhen1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SHENHUA · PPG 2.00

SHENZHEN · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

S. Shenhua (H) 59.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shenzhen (A) 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Shenhua face Shenzhen on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Shenhua a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Shenzhen 20%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for S. Shenhua and 1.1 for Shenzhen (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Shenhua are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.17 for Shenzhen. This match finished 1-2.

S. Shenhua vs Shenzhen Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions