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Franke vs Korsnas IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 11:00

Franke

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Korsnas IF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.2%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.6%1-17.8%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.7%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-18.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% 64.5% 1.55 -5.9%

Draw 21.4% 24.4% 4.10 -7.4%

Away win 17.9% 21.1% 4.75 -9.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 71.4% 1.40 -14.0%

Over 3.5 42.9% 50.0% 2.00 -14.2%

BTTS 53.2% 69.4% 1.44 -23.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -22.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.2%

H 61% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 8.6%

#5 3–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Franke2.4

Korsnas IF0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FRANKE · PPG 2.25

KORSNAS IF · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=60.7%

Win probability 1X2

Franke (H) 60.7%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -5.9%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.4%

Korsnas IF (A) 17.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Franke face Korsnas IF in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Franke a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Korsnas IF 18%, so Franke are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Franke and 0.9 for Korsnas IF (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Franke are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Korsnas IF. This match finished 3-1.

Franke vs Korsnas IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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