Today / Gdansk W vs Lech Poznan UAM

Gdansk W vs Lech Poznan UAM Prediction

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Gdansk W

PPG 1.30 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lech Poznan UAM

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.4%0-24.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.7%1-19.5%1-27.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.0%3-14.9%3-24.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.2%4+-22.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% — — —

Draw 23.3% — — —

Away win 35.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.8% — — —

BTTS 61.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.4%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1✓ 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gdansk W1.8

Lech Poznan UAM1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GDANSK W · PPG 1.30

LECH POZNAN UAM · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.30) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Gdansk W (H) 41.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lech Poznan UAM (A) 35.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gdansk W face Lech Poznan UAM on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gdansk W a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Lech Poznan UAM 35%, so Gdansk W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gdansk W and 1.7 for Lech Poznan UAM (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gdansk W are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.00 for Lech Poznan UAM. This match finished 2-1.

Gdansk W vs Lech Poznan UAM Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions