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Bamber Bridge vs Hebburn Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Bamber Bridge

PPG 1.32 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hebburn Town

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.8%0-25.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.8%1-111.4%1-28.4%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.4%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.8%3-14.1%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 30.3% 3.30 +24.1%

Draw 24.6% 27.0% 3.70 -9.0%

Away win 37.8% 55.6% 1.80 -32.0%

Over 2.5 56.2% — — —

Over 3.5 33.8% — — —

BTTS 59.2% 57.8% 1.73 +2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.2%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2✓ 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–1 7.8%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bamber Bridge1.5

Hebburn Town1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BAMBER BRIDGE · PPG 1.32

HEBBURN TOWN · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.32), Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Bamber Bridge (H) 37.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +24.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.0%

Hebburn Town (A) 37.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bamber Bridge face Hebburn Town in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bamber Bridge a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Hebburn Town 38%, so Hebburn Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bamber Bridge and 1.5 for Hebburn Town (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bamber Bridge are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.53 for Hebburn Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Bamber Bridge vs Hebburn Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

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