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Ashton Utd vs Guiseley Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

England - Non League Premier - Northern logo England flag England - Non League Premier - Northern Regular Season - 41 Hurst Cross· Ashton-under-Lyne, Greater Manchester Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00
Ashton Utd logo Ashton Utd PPG 1.47
1-1 HIT CS2
Guiseley logo Guiseley PPG 0.89
Home· +27.2% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Ashton Utd face Guiseley in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ashton Utd a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Guiseley 22%, so Ashton Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ashton Utd and 0.9 for Guiseley (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ashton Utd are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.89 for Guiseley. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.0%
Odds: 2.40 EV: +27.2%
Draw 25.4%
Odds: 3.00 EV: -23.8%
Away 21.6%
Odds: 2.60 EV: -43.8%
Model lean: Home
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.7% Odds: —
Over 3.5 23.5% Odds: —
BTTS 46.9% Odds: 1.67 -21.7%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-0
4th 2-1
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Ashton Utd
1.57
Guiseley
0.90

Model Suggestion

Home +27.2% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

League Track Record

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5/Under 50%
BTTS/No 50%
Score Hit 50%
ROI 0.4%
Bet Hit 50% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.89)

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