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Ashton Utd vs Guiseley Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Ashton Utd

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Guiseley

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+27.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-17.6%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.0%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.9%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 41.7% 2.40 +27.2%

Draw 25.4% 33.3% 3.00 -23.8%

Away win 21.6% 38.5% 2.60 -43.8%

Over 2.5 44.7% — — —

Over 3.5 23.5% — — —

BTTS 46.9% 59.9% 1.67 -21.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.9%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.3%

#2 1–1✓ 12.0%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ashton Utd1.6

Guiseley0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.7% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ASHTON UTD · PPG 1.47

GUISELEY · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Ashton Utd (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +27.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -23.8%

Guiseley (A) 21.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -43.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ashton Utd face Guiseley in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ashton Utd a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Guiseley 22%, so Ashton Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ashton Utd and 0.9 for Guiseley (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ashton Utd are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.89 for Guiseley. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Ashton Utd vs Guiseley Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

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