Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Orense vs U. Catolica

Orense vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 21:30

Orense

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

U. Catolica

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-113.0%0-27.5%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.7%1-113.4%1-27.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.0%2-16.9%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.1%3-12.4%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 40.7% 2.46 -13.4%

Draw 28.6% 29.9% 3.35 -2.5%

Away win 36.2% 36.5% 2.74 -0.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 17.6% 28.2% 3.55 -22.5%

BTTS 49.2% 57.8% 1.73 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 0–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 1–2✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orense1.0

U. Catolica1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENSE · PPG 1.71

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Orense (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -13.4%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.5%

U. Catolica (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orense face U. Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orense a 35% chance, the draw 29% and U. Catolica 36%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Orense and 1.1 for U. Catolica (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orense are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.00 for U. Catolica. This match finished 1-2.

Orense vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions