Today / SM San Juan vs Deportivo Maipu

SM San Juan vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

SM San Juan

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-114.3%0-27.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.8%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.5%2-16.4%2-23.1%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.1%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 33.3% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 13.0% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 1–0 13.8%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM San Juan0.9

Deportivo Maipu1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SM SAN JUAN · PPG 1.50

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

SM San Juan (H) 34.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Maipu (A) 33.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SM San Juan face Deportivo Maipu on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM San Juan a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Deportivo Maipu 33%, so SM San Juan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for SM San Juan and 1.0 for Deportivo Maipu (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM San Juan are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.86 for Deportivo Maipu. This match finished 2-1.

SM San Juan vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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