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UNSW vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 04:15

UNSW

PPG 1.86 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sydney Utd

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.8%0-28.2%0-34.6%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.8%1-111.4%1-29.6%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.9%2-16.6%2-25.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.6%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 23.8% 4.20 +11.3%

Draw 26.4% 27.0% 3.70 -1.4%

Away win 45.3% 58.8% 1.70 -23.0%

Over 2.5 52.7% 61.7% 1.62 -14.6%

Over 3.5 31.7% 40.0% 2.50 -20.8%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW1.2

Sydney Utd1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 1.86

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 28.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +11.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.4%

Sydney Utd (A) 45.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face Sydney Utd in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 28% chance, the draw 26% and Sydney Utd 45%, so Sydney Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UNSW and 1.7 for Sydney Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 2.50 for Sydney Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 2-0.

UNSW vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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