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Croydon Kings vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 05:00

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

NE MetroStars

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-14.7%0-26.6%0-36.2%0-4+8.5%1 1-02.2%1-16.1%1-28.5%1-37.9%1-4+11.0%2 2-01.4%2-13.9%2-25.4%2-35.1%2-4+7.0%3 3-00.6%3-11.7%3-22.3%3-32.2%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 64.8% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 58.2% — — —

BTTS 61.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob61.8%

A 65% / xG 1.3-2.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.5%

#2 1–3 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.1%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 0–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Croydon Kings1.3

NE MetroStars2.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.17

NE METROSTARS · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Croydon Kings (H) 13.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

NE MetroStars (A) 64.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Croydon Kings face NE MetroStars in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Croydon Kings a 14% chance, the draw 21% and NE MetroStars 65%, so NE MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Croydon Kings and 2.8 for NE MetroStars (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Croydon Kings are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.20 for NE MetroStars. This match finished 2-3.

Croydon Kings vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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