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Adelaide City vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 05:00

Adelaide City

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FK Beograd

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.7%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.4%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.9%3-15.5%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 50.0% 2.00 +1.8%

Draw 25.1% 27.8% 3.60 -5.8%

Away win 24.0% 34.5% 2.90 -18.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 31.0% 44.4% 2.25 -30.3%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide City1.7

FK Beograd1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 2.50

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=50.9%

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide City (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +1.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.8%

FK Beograd (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide City face FK Beograd in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide City a 51% chance, the draw 25% and FK Beograd 24%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Adelaide City and 1.1 for FK Beograd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide City are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.40 for FK Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Adelaide City vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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