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North Sunshine vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 05:00

North Sunshine

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Langwarrin

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.6%0-22.4%0-31.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.4%1-16.4%1-25.9%1-33.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-27.0%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.3%3-16.1%3-25.6%3-33.5%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-16.5%4+-26.0%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 61.7% 1.62 -16.3%

Draw 22.6% 25.0% 4.00 -5.8%

Away win 25.7% 25.6% 3.90 +0.1%

Over 2.5 67.1% 76.9% 1.30 -12.8%

Over 3.5 61.3% 58.8% 1.70 +4.2%

BTTS 64.8% 76.9% 1.30 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.8%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.1%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Sunshine2.4

Langwarrin1.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 61.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH SUNSHINE · PPG 1.20

LANGWARRIN · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

North Sunshine (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -16.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.8%

Langwarrin (A) 25.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Sunshine face Langwarrin in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Sunshine a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Langwarrin 26%, so North Sunshine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for North Sunshine and 1.8 for Langwarrin (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Sunshine are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.71 for Langwarrin. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 0-1.

North Sunshine vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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