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C. Olympic vs Belconnen Utd Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 04:30

C. Olympic

PPG 1.50 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Belconnen Utd

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+36.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.9%0-21.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-01.1%1-12.7%1-23.3%1-32.7%1-4+3.0%2 2-01.8%2-14.4%2-25.4%2-34.4%2-4+4.8%3 3-01.9%3-14.7%3-25.8%3-34.7%3-4+5.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-18.5%4+-210.4%4+-38.5%4+-4+9.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 66.7% 1.50 -21.7%

Draw 21.8% 23.8% 4.20 -5.1%

Away win 26.0% 21.7% 4.60 +11.8%

Over 2.5 79.0% 78.1% 1.28 +1.1%

Over 3.5 81.6% 59.9% 1.67 +36.3%

BTTS 66.7% 75.8% 1.32 -12.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 3.2-2.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.8%

#2 2–2 5.4%

#3 3–1 4.7%

#4 3–3 4.7%

#5 4–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

C. Olympic3.2

Belconnen Utd2.4

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 81.6%

Form & verdict PPG

C. OLYMPIC · PPG 1.50

BELCONNEN UTD · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=52.2%

Win probability 1X2

C. Olympic (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -21.7%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.1%

Belconnen Utd (A) 26.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

C. Olympic face Belconnen Utd in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives C. Olympic a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Belconnen Utd 26%, so C. Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for C. Olympic and 2.4 for Belconnen Utd (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, C. Olympic are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.20 for Belconnen Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.3%. This match finished 4-4.

C. Olympic vs Belconnen Utd Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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