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Canberra White vs OConnor Knight Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 05:00

Canberra White

PPG 0.17 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

OConnor Knight

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.8%0-26.3%0-35.6%0-4+6.9%1 1-02.5%1-16.6%1-28.7%1-37.6%1-4+9.4%2 2-01.7%2-14.5%2-25.9%2-35.2%2-4+6.4%3 3-00.8%3-12.1%3-22.7%3-32.4%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.7% 27.8% 3.60 -15.3%

Draw 21.2% 25.6% 3.90 -10.4%

Away win 58.1% 59.9% 1.67 -3.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 80.0% 1.25 -20.1%

Over 3.5 56.6% 61.0% 1.64 -7.2%

BTTS 62.5% 78.7% 1.27 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob62.5%

A 58% / xG 1.4-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–3 7.6%

#3 1–1 6.6%

#4 0–2✓ 6.3%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra White1.4

OConnor Knight2.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA WHITE · PPG 0.17

OCONNOR KNIGHT · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Canberra White (H) 20.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.4%

OConnor Knight (A) 58.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra White face OConnor Knight in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra White a 21% chance, the draw 21% and OConnor Knight 58%, so OConnor Knight are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Canberra White and 2.6 for OConnor Knight (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra White are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 0.00 for OConnor Knight. This match finished 0-2.

Canberra White vs OConnor Knight Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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