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Mushuc Runa vs Guayaquil City Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Mushuc Runa

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Guayaquil City

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.3%0-112.3%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.8%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.4%2-16.7%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.3%3-12.3%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 62.5% 1.60 -30.7%

Draw 32.8% 30.3% 3.30 +8.2%

Away win 23.9% 20.0% 5.00 +11.7%

Over 2.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Over 3.5 10.2% 26.7% 3.75 -37.0%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.3%

#2 1–0 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mushuc Runa1.0

Guayaquil City0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 2.00

GUAYAQUIL CITY · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Mushuc Runa (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -30.7%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +8.2%

Guayaquil City (A) 23.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mushuc Runa face Guayaquil City in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mushuc Runa a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Guayaquil City 24%, so Mushuc Runa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mushuc Runa and 0.7 for Guayaquil City (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mushuc Runa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Guayaquil City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Mushuc Runa vs Guayaquil City Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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