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Villa Dalmine vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 18:30

Villa Dalmine

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Real Pilar

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.8%0-111.8%0-23.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.3%1-112.1%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.4%2-16.2%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.5%3-12.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 46.5% 2.15 -5.2%

Draw 32.3% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

Away win 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Over 2.5 35.0% 32.3% 3.10 +8.5%

Over 3.5 8.1% 15.4% 6.50 -28.4%

BTTS 46.2% 40.8% 2.45 +13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.8%

#2 1–0 20.3%

#3 1–1✓ 12.1%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 11.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Dalmine1.0

Real Pilar0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 1.71

REAL PILAR · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Villa Dalmine (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -5.2%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.2%

Real Pilar (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Dalmine face Real Pilar in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Dalmine a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Real Pilar 24%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Villa Dalmine and 0.6 for Real Pilar (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Dalmine are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.00 for Real Pilar. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Villa Dalmine vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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