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Argentino Merlo vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 18:30

Argentino Merlo

PPG 1.14 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

SM Burzaco

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.9%0-119.8%0-27.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-111.6%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.5%2-13.4%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.9%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.0% 42.9% 2.33 -23.6%

Draw 39.4% 35.1% 2.85 +12.3%

Away win 34.6% 31.3% 3.20 +10.7%

Over 2.5 25.8% 35.1% 2.85 -15.9%

Over 3.5 4.8% 18.2% 5.50 -44.2%

BTTS 41.8% 45.5% 2.20 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob41.8%

D 39% / xG 0.6-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.9%

#2 0–1✓ 19.8%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 1–1 11.6%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Merlo0.6

SM Burzaco0.8

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO MERLO · PPG 1.14

SM BURZACO · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Merlo (H) 26.0%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -23.6%

Draw 39.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +12.3%

SM Burzaco (A) 34.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Merlo face SM Burzaco in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Merlo a 26% chance, the draw 39% and SM Burzaco 35%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Argentino Merlo and 0.8 for SM Burzaco (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Merlo are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.83 for SM Burzaco. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Argentino Merlo vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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