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A. Quilmes vs Defensores U. Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 18:30

A. Quilmes

PPG 0.86 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Defensores U.

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.7%0-115.6%0-25.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.5%1-112.6%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.1%2-15.1%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.9%3-11.4%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 48.8% 2.05 -29.1%

Draw 40.5% 35.1% 2.85 +15.4%

Away win 24.8% 26.7% 3.75 -4.2%

Over 2.5 33.1% 33.9% 2.95 -2.4%

Over 3.5 6.9% 18.2% 5.50 -37.2%

BTTS 46.2% 42.6% 2.35 +8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

D 40% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.7%

#2 1–0✓ 17.5%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 15.6%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Quilmes0.8

Defensores U.0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.1% · O3.5 PROB 6.9%

Form & verdict PPG

A. QUILMES · PPG 0.86

DEFENSORES U. · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.86) > Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

A. Quilmes (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.1%

Draw 40.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +15.4%

Defensores U. (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Quilmes face Defensores U. in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Quilmes a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Defensores U. 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for A. Quilmes and 0.7 for Defensores U. (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Quilmes are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.43 for Defensores U.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.4%. This match finished 1-0.

A. Quilmes vs Defensores U. Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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