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Dinamo Brest vs Arsenal D. Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 17:00

Dinamo Brest

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Arsenal D.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-110.4%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.2%1-113.1%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-18.3%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 71.4% 1.40 -36.6%

Draw 28.6% 26.3% 3.80 +5.2%

Away win 26.1% 13.3% 7.50 +57.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 52.9% 1.89 -12.7%

Over 3.5 19.2% 34.0% 2.94 -26.1%

BTTS 51.6% 47.6% 2.10 +8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Brest1.3

Arsenal D.1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO BREST · PPG 1.00

ARSENAL D. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Brest (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -36.6%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +5.2%

Arsenal D. (A) 26.1%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +57.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Brest face Arsenal D. in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Brest a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Arsenal D. 26%, so Dinamo Brest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dinamo Brest and 1.0 for Arsenal D. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Brest are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Arsenal D.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Dinamo Brest vs Arsenal D. Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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