Today / Real Murcia vs Eldense

Real Murcia vs Eldense Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Real Murcia

PPG 1.28 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Eldense

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-114.4%0-27.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.4%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.8%2-16.3%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.8%3-11.9%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% — — —

Draw 31.4% — — —

Away win 36.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 14.6% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 0–1 14.4%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Murcia0.9

Eldense1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MURCIA · PPG 1.28

ELDENSE · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Real Murcia (H) 32.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Eldense (A) 36.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Murcia face Eldense on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Murcia a 32% chance, the draw 31% and Eldense 36%, so Eldense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Real Murcia and 1.1 for Eldense (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Murcia are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.17 for Eldense. This match finished 1-1.

Real Murcia vs Eldense Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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