Today / Termalica vs Lechia Gdansk

Termalica vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Termalica

PPG 0.81 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lechia Gdansk

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.3%0-25.1%0-33.3%0-4+2.5%1 1-04.6%1-18.9%1-28.5%1-35.5%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.1%2-34.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.1%3-14.1%3-23.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.5%4+-22.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 41.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.2% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.5%

A 41% / xG 1.7-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Termalica1.7

Lechia Gdansk1.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TERMALICA · PPG 0.81

LECHIA GDANSK · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.81), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Termalica (H) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lechia Gdansk (A) 41.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Termalica face Lechia Gdansk on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Termalica a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Lechia Gdansk 41%, so Lechia Gdansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Termalica and 1.9 for Lechia Gdansk (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Termalica are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 0.94 for Lechia Gdansk. This match finished 3-2.

Termalica vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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