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Torquay Utd vs Hemel Hempstead Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Torquay Utd

PPG 2.14 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hemel Hempstead

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.5%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.5%1-110.4%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.4%3-16.3%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.8% 64.5% 1.55 -8.9%

Draw 22.0% 25.6% 3.90 -14.2%

Away win 19.2% 19.6% 5.10 -2.1%

Over 2.5 55.2% 60.6% 1.65 -8.9%

Over 3.5 32.9% 38.5% 2.60 -14.5%

BTTS 53.4% 59.9% 1.67 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.4%

H 59% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 10.5%

#2 1–1 10.4%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torquay Utd1.9

Hemel Hempstead1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TORQUAY UTD · PPG 2.14

HEMEL HEMPSTEAD · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Torquay Utd (H) 58.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -8.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -14.2%

Hemel Hempstead (A) 19.2%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torquay Utd face Hemel Hempstead in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torquay Utd a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Hemel Hempstead 19%, so Torquay Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Torquay Utd and 1.0 for Hemel Hempstead (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torquay Utd are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.45 for Hemel Hempstead. This match finished 1-2.

Torquay Utd vs Hemel Hempstead Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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