Torquay Utd vs Hemel Hempstead Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South South - 45 Plainmoor· Torquay Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Torquay Utd PPG 2.14

1-2 MISS

Hemel Hempstead PPG 1.45

Away· -2.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Torquay Utd face Hemel Hempstead in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torquay Utd a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Hemel Hempstead 19%, so Torquay Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Torquay Utd and 1.0 for Hemel Hempstead (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torquay Utd are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.45 for Hemel Hempstead. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 58.8%

Odds: 1.55 EV: -8.9%

Draw 22.0%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -14.2%

Away 19.2%

Odds: 5.10 EV: -2.1%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.2% Odds: 1.65 -8.9%

Over 3.5 32.9% Odds: 2.60 -14.5%

BTTS 53.4% Odds: 1.67 -10.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Torquay Utd

1.91

Hemel Hempstead

0.99

Model SuggestionHome -8.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -8.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5/Under 70%

BTTS/No 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 73% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away AVERAGE (1.45)