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Truro City vs Chesham United Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Truro City

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWL

UPCOMING

Chesham United

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.4%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.8%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.5%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-15.1%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 54.1% 1.85 -13.8%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 29.0% 28.6% 3.50 +0.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

Away O1.5 32.4% 30.8% 3.25 +5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Truro City1.6

Chesham United1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TRURO CITY · PPG 1.93

CHESHAM UNITED · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Truro City (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -13.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Chesham United (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Truro City face Chesham United in England - National League - South on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Truro City a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Chesham United 29%, so Truro City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Truro City and 1.0 for Chesham United (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Truro City are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.14 for Chesham United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Truro City vs Chesham United Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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