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Dover vs Maidenhead Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Dover

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

UPCOMING

Maidenhead

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.4%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.2%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.3%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 29.4% 3.40 +54.4%

Draw 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -12.2%

Away win 30.2% 50.0% 2.00 -39.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 32.3% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

BTTS 55.9% 62.5% 1.60 -10.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.2% 2.62 +4.5%

Away O1.5 36.8% 54.6% 1.83 -32.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dover1.4

Maidenhead1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DOVER · PPG 1.27

MAIDENHEAD · PPG 1.24

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dover (H) 45.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +54.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.2%

Maidenhead (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -39.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dover face Maidenhead in England - National League - South on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dover a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Maidenhead 30%, so Dover are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dover and 1.2 for Maidenhead (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dover are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.24 for Maidenhead. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +37.3%.

Dover vs Maidenhead Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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