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Farnborough vs Tonbridge Angels Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Farnborough

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

UPCOMING

Tonbridge Angels

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.9%0-26.8%0-33.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.6%1-111.7%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-17.7%2-25.9%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 46.5% 2.15 -23.0%

Draw 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -10.8%

Away win 40.0% 35.7% 2.80 +12.0%

Over 2.5 55.0% 62.5% 1.60 -12.0%

Over 3.5 34.6% 42.0% 2.38 -17.6%

BTTS 59.0% 65.4% 1.53 -9.7%

Home O1.5 38.4% 54.6% 1.83 -29.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 44.4% 2.25 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.0%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farnborough1.3

Tonbridge Angels1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FARNBOROUGH · PPG 1.43

TONBRIDGE ANGELS · PPG 1.77

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Farnborough (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.8%

Tonbridge Angels (A) 40.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farnborough face Tonbridge Angels in England - National League - South on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farnborough a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Tonbridge Angels 40%, so Tonbridge Angels are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Farnborough and 1.5 for Tonbridge Angels (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farnborough are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.77 for Tonbridge Angels. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.5%.

Farnborough vs Tonbridge Angels Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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