Today / England - National League - South / Maidstone Utd vs Weston-super-Mare

Maidstone Utd vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Maidstone Utd

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

UPCOMING

Weston-super-Mare

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.8%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.3%1-111.9%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.5%3-14.5%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Draw 24.5% 33.3% 3.00 -15.9%

Away win 30.1% 29.4% 3.40 +2.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 51.3% 1.95 +16.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 29.4% 3.40 +23.8%

BTTS 60.1% 55.6% 1.80 +8.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 47.6% 2.10 -16.2%

Away O1.5 37.6% 33.3% 3.00 +12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.1%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maidstone Utd1.5

Weston-super-Mare1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MAIDSTONE UTD · PPG 1.64

WESTON-SUPER-MARE · PPG 1.52

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maidstone Utd (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.9%

Weston-super-Mare (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maidstone Utd face Weston-super-Mare in England - National League - South on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maidstone Utd a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Weston-super-Mare 30%, so Maidstone Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Maidstone Utd and 1.3 for Weston-super-Mare (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maidstone Utd are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.52 for Weston-super-Mare. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.8%.

Maidstone Utd vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League - South Predictions