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Chelmsford City vs Salisbury Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Chelmsford City

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

UPCOMING

Salisbury

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.8%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.6%1-113.2%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-18.1%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 57.1% 1.75 -23.2%

Draw 27.4% 28.6% 3.50 -2.5%

Away win 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

Over 2.5 44.5% 58.8% 1.70 -24.3%

Over 3.5 25.5% 38.2% 2.62 -19.9%

BTTS 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Home O1.5 33.9% 57.8% 1.73 -41.3%

Away O1.5 27.1% 30.8% 3.25 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelmsford City1.2

Salisbury1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELMSFORD CITY · PPG 1.71

SALISBURY · PPG 0.84

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chelmsford City (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -23.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.5%

Salisbury (A) 28.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelmsford City face Salisbury in England - National League - South on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelmsford City a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Salisbury 29%, so Chelmsford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chelmsford City and 1.0 for Salisbury (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelmsford City are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.84 for Salisbury. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.4%.

Chelmsford City vs Salisbury Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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