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Horsham vs Dagenham & Redbridge Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Horsham

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

UPCOMING

Dagenham & Redbridge

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-111.6%0-26.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.9%1-113.4%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.4%2-17.7%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.8%3-13.0%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 43.5% 2.30 -6.9%

Draw 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.7%

Away win 30.8% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Over 2.5 44.7% 52.6% 1.90 -15.1%

Over 3.5 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -9.9%

BTTS 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

Home O1.5 31.2% 45.5% 2.20 -31.4%

Away O1.5 32.4% 38.2% 2.62 -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.2%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Horsham1.2

Dagenham & Redbridge1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HORSHAM · PPG 1.39

DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE · PPG 1.54

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Horsham (H) 40.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -6.9%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.7%

Dagenham & Redbridge (A) 30.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Horsham face Dagenham & Redbridge in England - National League - South on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Horsham a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Dagenham & Redbridge 31%, so Horsham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Horsham and 1.0 for Dagenham & Redbridge (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Horsham are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.54 for Dagenham & Redbridge.

Horsham vs Dagenham & Redbridge Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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