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Salisbury vs Horsham Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Salisbury

PPG 1.55 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Horsham

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-111.6%0-25.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.4%1-113.4%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.7%2-17.7%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-13.0%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 48.8% 2.05 -19.6%

Draw 29.5% 28.6% 3.50 +3.3%

Away win 31.4% 32.3% 3.10 -2.7%

Over 2.5 36.3% 58.8% 1.70 -38.3%

Over 3.5 17.0% 36.4% 2.75 -53.3%

BTTS 43.1% 63.7% 1.57 -32.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob43.1%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.4%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salisbury1.1

Horsham1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SALISBURY · PPG 1.55

HORSHAM · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.55) > Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Salisbury (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -19.6%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +3.3%

Horsham (A) 31.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Salisbury face Horsham in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salisbury a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Horsham 31%, so Salisbury are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Salisbury and 1.0 for Horsham (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salisbury are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.23 for Horsham. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Salisbury vs Horsham Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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