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T. Zhodino vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:00

T. Zhodino

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Minsk

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-112.3%0-27.8%0-33.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.3%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.5%2-17.0%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 45.5% 2.20 -26.1%

Draw 28.4% 34.7% 2.88 -10.9%

Away win 38.0% 30.8% 3.25 +23.5%

Over 2.5 46.9% 44.1% 2.27 +6.5%

Over 3.5 20.8% 25.1% 3.98 -10.3%

BTTS 51.6% 52.4% 1.91 -1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

T. Zhodino1.1

FC Minsk1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

T. ZHODINO · PPG 1.00

FC MINSK · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

T. Zhodino (H) 33.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -26.1%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.9%

FC Minsk (A) 38.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

T. Zhodino face FC Minsk in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. Zhodino a 34% chance, the draw 28% and FC Minsk 38%, so FC Minsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for T. Zhodino and 1.3 for FC Minsk (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. Zhodino are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for FC Minsk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 3-0.

T. Zhodino vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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