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Maidstone Utd vs Worthing Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Maidstone Utd

PPG 1.95 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Worthing

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.3%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.7%1-110.7%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.7%3-15.2%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.2%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 35.7% 2.80 +25.7%

Draw 23.6% 29.0% 3.45 -18.6%

Away win 31.5% 45.5% 2.20 -30.7%

Over 2.5 59.8% 61.7% 1.62 -3.1%

Over 3.5 37.5% 39.2% 2.55 -4.4%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 1–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maidstone Utd1.7

Worthing1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MAIDSTONE UTD · PPG 1.95

WORTHING · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.95) > Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Maidstone Utd (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +25.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -18.6%

Worthing (A) 31.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -30.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maidstone Utd face Worthing in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maidstone Utd a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Worthing 32%, so Maidstone Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Maidstone Utd and 1.4 for Worthing (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maidstone Utd are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.45 for Worthing. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Maidstone Utd vs Worthing Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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