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Maidenhead Utd vs Dover Athletic Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Maidenhead Utd

PPG 1.91 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Dover Athletic

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.3% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.7%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-18.4%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.2%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-16.9%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.3% 84.7% 1.18 -15.9%

Draw 17.6% 18.2% 5.50 -3.2%

Away win 11.1% 7.1% 14.00 +55.4%

Over 2.5 58.5% 69.0% 1.45 -15.2%

Over 3.5 36.1% 47.6% 2.10 -24.2%

BTTS 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 71% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 58% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–0✓ 10.9%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 9.3%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maidenhead Utd2.3

Dover Athletic0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MAIDENHEAD UTD · PPG 1.91

DOVER ATHLETIC · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.91) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Maidenhead Utd (H) 71.3%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -15.9%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -3.2%

Dover Athletic (A) 11.1%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +55.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maidenhead Utd face Dover Athletic in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maidenhead Utd a 71% chance, the draw 18% and Dover Athletic 11%, so Maidenhead Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Maidenhead Utd and 0.8 for Dover Athletic (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maidenhead Utd are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.14 for Dover Athletic. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Maidenhead Utd vs Dover Athletic Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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