Today / Skovde AIK vs Ariana

Skovde AIK vs Ariana Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Skovde AIK

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

Ariana

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.2%0-115.3%0-25.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.6%1-112.7%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.3%2-15.3%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.0%3-11.5%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% — — —

Draw 39.4% — — —

Away win 25.2% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 7.2% — — —

BTTS 46.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.2%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–1 15.3%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skovde AIK0.8

Ariana0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SKOVDE AIK · PPG 1.50

ARIANA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Skovde AIK (H) 35.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 39.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ariana (A) 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Skovde AIK face Ariana on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skovde AIK a 35% chance, the draw 39% and Ariana 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Skovde AIK and 0.7 for Ariana (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skovde AIK are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.75 for Ariana. This match finished 0-4.

Skovde AIK vs Ariana Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions