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Farnborough vs Tonbridge Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Farnborough

PPG 1.41 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tonbridge

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.2%0-24.1%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.0%1-19.5%1-27.5%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.4%3-15.4%3-24.2%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.7%4+-23.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 44.4% 2.25 -0.8%

Draw 22.4% 27.0% 3.70 -17.1%

Away win 33.5% 38.2% 2.62 -12.2%

Over 2.5 66.5% 62.5% 1.60 +6.4%

Over 3.5 44.6% 40.0% 2.50 +11.5%

BTTS 66.8% 66.7% 1.50 +0.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob66.8%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farnborough1.8

Tonbridge1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FARNBOROUGH · PPG 1.41

TONBRIDGE · PPG 1.32

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away AVERAGE (1.32)

Win probability 1X2

Farnborough (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -0.8%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -17.1%

Tonbridge (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farnborough face Tonbridge in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farnborough a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Tonbridge 34%, so Farnborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Farnborough and 1.6 for Tonbridge (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farnborough are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.32 for Tonbridge. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 1-6.

Farnborough vs Tonbridge Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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