Farnborough vs Tonbridge Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South South - 45 Saunders Transport Community Stadium· Farnborough, Hampshire Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Farnborough PPG 1.41

1-6 MISS

Tonbridge PPG 1.32

Over3.5· +11.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Farnborough face Tonbridge in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farnborough a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Tonbridge 34%, so Farnborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Farnborough and 1.6 for Tonbridge (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farnborough are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.32 for Tonbridge. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 1-6.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.1%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -0.8%

Draw 22.4%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -17.1%

Away 33.5%

Odds: 2.62 EV: -12.2%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 66.5% Odds: 1.60 +6.4%

Over 3.5 44.6% Odds: 2.50 +11.5%

BTTS 66.8% Odds: 1.50 +0.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Farnborough

1.84

Tonbridge

1.58

Model SuggestionBTTS +0.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+11.5%)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away AVERAGE (1.32)