Today / Ekenas IF vs KaPa

Ekenas IF vs KaPa Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Ekenas IF

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

KaPa

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.1%0-23.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.5%1-18.6%1-26.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.0%3-16.2%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.2%4+-24.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 25.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 49.0% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ekenas IF2.1

KaPa1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EKENAS IF · PPG 2.25

KAPA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Ekenas IF (H) 50.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

KaPa (A) 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ekenas IF face KaPa on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ekenas IF a 51% chance, the draw 24% and KaPa 25%, so Ekenas IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Ekenas IF and 1.6 for KaPa (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ekenas IF are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.75 for KaPa. This match finished 1-0.

Ekenas IF vs KaPa Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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