Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / SJK vs Oulu

SJK vs Oulu Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

SJK

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Oulu

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-113.7%0-210.1%0-34.9%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.8%2-15.6%2-24.1%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.1%3-11.7%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% 38.8% 2.58 -20.1%

Draw 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -2.3%

Away win 45.8% 41.0% 2.44 +11.8%

Over 2.5 47.0% 58.8% 1.70 -20.1%

Over 3.5 21.4% 37.0% 2.70 -25.3%

BTTS 51.6% 65.4% 1.53 -21.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.6%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1✓ 13.7%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 0–2 10.1%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SJK0.9

Oulu1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SJK · PPG 1.25

OULU · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

SJK (H) 25.8%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -20.1%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.3%

Oulu (A) 45.8%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

SJK face Oulu in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJK a 26% chance, the draw 28% and Oulu 46%, so Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for SJK and 1.5 for Oulu (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJK are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.20 for Oulu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 0-1.

SJK vs Oulu Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Veikkausliiga Predictions