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KuPS vs Lahti Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

KuPS

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lahti

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-19.1%0-22.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.9%1-111.6%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-17.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.1%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 65.4% 1.53 -22.4%

Draw 28.2% 26.7% 3.75 +3.5%

Away win 21.1% 17.2% 5.80 +13.4%

Over 2.5 35.0% 55.6% 1.80 -37.0%

Over 3.5 11.8% 33.3% 3.00 -38.8%

BTTS 46.2% 55.6% 1.80 -16.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.9%

#2 0–0 15.6%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.6%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS1.3

Lahti0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS · PPG 2.20

LAHTI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=50.7%

Win probability 1X2

KuPS (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -22.4%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +3.5%

Lahti (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS face Lahti in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Lahti 21%, so KuPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for KuPS and 0.6 for Lahti (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Lahti. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 2-1.

KuPS vs Lahti Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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