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Jaro vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Jaro

PPG 0.67 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Mariehamn

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-115.1%0-26.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.4%1-113.3%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.8%2-15.8%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.0%3-11.7%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 53.2% 1.88 -31.8%

Draw 34.2% 29.9% 3.35 +14.6%

Away win 29.5% 25.6% 3.90 +9.0%

Over 2.5 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Over 3.5 10.0% 29.4% 3.40 -39.6%

BTTS 46.2% 56.5% 1.77 -18.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.2%

D 34% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.5%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 0–1 15.1%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaro0.9

Mariehamn0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JARO · PPG 0.67

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.67) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Jaro (H) 36.3%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -31.8%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +14.6%

Mariehamn (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaro face Mariehamn in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaro a 36% chance, the draw 34% and Mariehamn 30%, so Jaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Jaro and 0.9 for Mariehamn (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaro are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Mariehamn. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Jaro vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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