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Ilves vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Ilves

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gnistan

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.6%0-26.6%0-33.4%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.5%1-111.6%1-28.9%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-17.8%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.3%3-13.5%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 50.5% 1.98 -28.7%

Draw 25.8% 28.2% 3.55 -5.1%

Away win 38.2% 30.3% 3.30 +26.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 59.9% 1.67 -1.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 37.7% 2.65 -13.1%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

A 38% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves1.4

Gnistan1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES · PPG 1.00

GNISTAN · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Ilves (H) 36.0%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -28.7%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.1%

Gnistan (A) 38.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves face Gnistan in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Gnistan 38%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ilves and 1.5 for Gnistan (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Gnistan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Ilves vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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