Today / Jong Almere C. vs GVVV

Jong Almere C. vs GVVV Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Jong Almere C.

PPG 1.81 · HOME

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

GVVV

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.5%0-22.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.2%1-16.5%1-25.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.3%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.6%3-17.1%3-25.5%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-18.4%4+-26.5%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 59.0% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 1–1 6.5%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Almere C.2.6

GVVV1.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG ALMERE C. · PPG 1.81

GVVV · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Jong Almere C. (H) 52.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

GVVV (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Almere C. face GVVV on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Almere C. a 52% chance, the draw 23% and GVVV 25%, so Jong Almere C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Jong Almere C. and 1.6 for GVVV (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Almere C. are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.13 for GVVV. This match finished 5-4.

Jong Almere C. vs GVVV Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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