Today / IJsselmeerv. vs ACV Assen

IJsselmeerv. vs ACV Assen Prediction

Saturday, May 23, 2026

IJsselmeerv.

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

ACV Assen

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.1%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.6%1-19.7%1-27.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.9%3-15.7%3-24.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.9% — — —

Over 3.5 43.3% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IJsselmeerv.1.9

ACV Assen1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

IJSSELMEERV. · PPG 1.06

ACV ASSEN · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

IJsselmeerv. (H) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ACV Assen (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

IJsselmeerv. face ACV Assen on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IJsselmeerv. a 49% chance, the draw 25% and ACV Assen 26%, so IJsselmeerv. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for IJsselmeerv. and 1.5 for ACV Assen (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IJsselmeerv. are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.69 for ACV Assen. This match finished 2-4.

IJsselmeerv. vs ACV Assen Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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